An Urban Housing Bubble?

STOCK OF EMPTY FORECLOSED HOMES SLOWS DRIVE FOR URBAN BUILDING

Really?
My husband calls me the "Lathe of Heaven" because of my prescience.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong on this account. I told him this might happen before I read this article.   Here is an excerpt from the San Francisco Public Press from June, 2012:

But one Prominent researcher, Karen Chapple, a U.C Berkeley professor of city and regional planning, calculates that over the next decade the total number of vacant homes could reach 250,000.  The excess housing stock would discourage developers from investing heavily in the proposed transit-oriented housing zones, no  matter how hard regional planner and city leaders urge them to invest there.

Does it feel like these NGOs are burying their collective head in the sand?  That they will do anything to create their high density housing with no regard to the
ramifications in the future?  And why aren't more people confronting them?

The article goes on to say:

Chapple said the region is only about halfway through cleaning up the housing mess.  Of the Bay Area's current 150,000 foreclosed homes, she estimates, only about one-third will be salvaged through a recent national settlement with the banks.  And perhaps another 150,000 will face foreclosure in coming years.

"We really need to take the foreclosure crisis into account,"said Chapple, who is also an advisor on Plan Bay Area.  "It means that we won't be able to build.  In reality we are going to have to depend on this foreclosed stock to provide much of the housing.  But the banks may not release the stock, so we are working with uncertainty over here in the housing market.

Is this poor woman locked in a dungeon somewhere.  Her conclusions certainly aren't in line with ABAG's.  Probably a voice in the wilderness, like I feel sometimes.

Uncertainty, and we are still going forward with this.  Who is in charge here?  The other article talks about the "Ever-changing population predictions....State, regional forecasts vary widely, generating uncertainty about long-term housing needs" An important read.  I have it on good account that the ABAG rep practically had a filibuster with the Ca. State Dept. of Finance's demographer over the latter's figures with regard to population growth.  Did I mention that ABAG's was 1.5mil over the state's!!!!

Putting monies in the wrong place again.  How about fixing up the schools in Oakland, having more tech programs?  Can you say boondoggle?
Where would you rather live, in high density housing or a home with a yard.  My friend's just moved back here from Texas into a foreclosed home in San Ramon.  Housing is expensive here but doable with the foreclosure market.

I'm sure ABAG has the bulldozers ready right now to roll over those foreclosed homes as we speak.

I worry about the whole Bay Area, not just Orinda... an estimate of 73,000 new cars in San Francisco after they are done with the program? 

I just want new, safe and efficient mass transportation before any of this happens.  We are at 1990 rates of GHGs as we speak, and as cars are slated to reach 50mpg in the future, the air will get better.  People like to drive and it's their right to be stuck in traffic.  Ha!  It's diesel fuel fumes we need to worry about and I believe there is new technology on the horizon to filter it.

In my opinion, It just feels that we are moving people from one place to another to spend money building.  And remember, if housing fails, retail, where the tax revenue comes from, fails.  I look at the BIG picture.  We are just coming off a terrible malaise with regard to our economy.

Hope my editing is better on this one.  I'm tired, and worried about my kid's future.  Keep the petition drive going at orindawatch.org until August 13, the final, final.

P.S.  I found a disturbing trend.  I've talked to people who say they know council members and couldn't possibly vote against what they are doing, put their name on a petition. And someone actually said to a friend that they have a business in town and are afraid of ramifications from the city.  WHAT!!!!!  What has happened to our democracy, and freedom of expression that people are afraid to speak their own mind?  I have been acquainted with and admired Amy Worth for years.  I just don't agree with her on this.  It's your right to disagree. Vote your mind!  Thank you!